Two Horse Race

visionmobile.gifVisionMobile published a great summary of the mobile ecosystems today in its report "Mobile Platforms: The Clash of Ecosystems". One of the conclusions is that it’s now a two house race with iOS and Android. The question for developers such as myself is how likely is it that another (old or new) platform might take hold and be able to compete?

The report talks about network effects and… 

"the critical mass at which strong network effects begin to take hold between users and application developers." 

and …

"As an application platform grows, network effects accelerate. That, combined with vendor lock-in (making it inconvenient for users to switch) makes it very difficult to displace the leading application platforms, once they are established."

I believe we have already reached this threshold.