Many companies doing development are looking at the ‘here and now’. I previously observed how successful products sometimes project the technical and market roadmap to the next few years and try to fill a gap. In mobile, things change very quickly, timescales are compressed and it’s rarely sensible to try to project more than a year or two into the future. So what are the trends for the say the next year?
Gartner identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013. First of all notice Gartner is talking about "Technology Trends" not "Mobile Trends". The fact that many of Gartner’s trends directly or indirectly implicate mobile demonstrates how important mobile has become.
I will leave you to read the press release. However, there are just two statements I find harder to believe will come to fruition…
"However, only 20 percent of those handsets are likely to be Windows phones."
20% of smartphones sold in mature markets in 2013 will be Windows Phones? They must be dreaming. I believe it’s more likely to be single digit percentages, as now. To discover why, see my previous post on Windows 8.
"However, there will be a long term shift away from native apps to Web apps as HTML5 becomes more capable."
How will HTML5 become more capable? I can’t yet see how (or why) Apple and Google, the current browser gatekeepers, might make HTML5 have capabilities closer to those of native apps. Is it in their interest? How have mobile browsers’ capability improved over the last five years let alone the next five years? Don’t get me wrong, I would like it to happen but I don’t yet see the commercial drivers for this. If you want to help make this actually happen then check out CoreMob.