Benedict Evans has a great updated presentation on how Mobile is Eating the World. He depicts the state of PCs vs mobile, shows how smartphones (sales) are exploding and how there’s more growth to come. The slideshare presentation explains how a fundamental change of scale has happened resulting in changes of use and polarisation of manufacturers. There’s an interesting analysis on how the tablet market is splitting and how the iPad dominates use.
A key message is that there are still lots of unknowns. For example, how many devices will people eventually own and how often will they be replaced? However, Benedict concludes Apple iOS and Google’s Android have won and it’s unlikely that other platforms will be relevant.
Apple is moving innovation down the the hardware/software stack, for example Fingerprints, Bluetooth, Airdrop, where it’s harder for Google to change things while Google is moving innovation up the stack, for example Now, Maps, Plus and semantic search where it’s harder for Apple. There’s an interesting analysis on ‘self-selection’ that gives a great, I suppose obvious, summary how people who buy the iPhone have more money hence drive relatively more app revenue.