Visionmobile has an interesting post Look Ma, No Apps, Just Messages where it’s said that there will be a move from apps to messaging. The “transition to a conversational paradigm” will be driven by Facebook.
I first read about this idea in UK Wired magazine but I am not so sure this will be the case. I see messaging apps are much like web (html) apps and notifications vs apps in that the limitations are such that they can’t be all things to all companies.
Take just one example. I have been on apps for iBeacons. How will these integrate? Will the messaging apps detect beacons? Probably not. However, assuming they will, where will the rules lie of what to trigger on and what to show? Facebook or some other messaging platform provider can’t extend this far to be flexible enough. This is just one such example. Think about GPS, SMS, using the phonebook, sharing data, branding and analytics. How will these be integrated in custom ways? Then there’s availability, security, data privacy and service longetivity. As someone recently said to me, “if you don’t own it, you don’t control it”.
I can’t yet see messaging platforms replacing apps even with Facebook pushing in that direction.