There’s a very dramatic post at MobileOpportunity entitled Mobile Applications: RIP. Michael Mace’s observations are based on a company that has been trying to sell applications.
While I agree that creating a mobile application for sale is now a dead end (and had been for many years), the smart people have since moved on to ‘free’ applications that generate revenue in other ways (e.g. Ad funded) or provide interfaces to existing products/services that themselves provide revenue. I wrote about this type of development just under 2 years ago.
Web applications are not the golden bullet. They have their own challenges (see links below). I believe native, runtime and web apps will continue to coexist for now. From my angle, there has never been a time when there are more companies looking for someone to create their native application.
With Nokia, Google and AOL creating application development platforms, I believe it’s far too early to be making any predictions either way.