There’s an interesting article ‘Fragmentation is the enemy of innovation‘ on the MEX blog – especially interesting for me as I am quoted in it.
I also tend to think Flash Lite’s new zero cost licensing has come too late – I criticised Flash Lite licensing in 2005. As an aside, Adobe’s existing shipped 500m licenses are mainly for early functionally deficient versions of Flash Lite so these volumes mean nothing.
Even though the licenses are now free to phone OEMs, integrating Flash Lite into a phone isn’t a zero cost option and it requires development and possibly better hardware (more ROM). As we have seen with the current iPhone, it may not be considered to be viable.
When users have more capable mobile browsers, they expect to be able to view Flash Content. Flash content found on the web, can’t be played in Flash Lite so phone OEMs will question whether Flash Lite is really worth including.
I currently don’t see Flash Lite as the predominant future development platform. We need something new, non-proprietary, possibly more web technology based, to bridge across all development platforms.