Last January, AMF Ventures conducted a survey of 400 mobile professionals…
"to delve deeper into the technical environment of mobile devices, the policies and behaviours around them, and the impact that this has on the further development of the industry as a whole."
The results of the survey are available on slideshare.
I personally think native applications and the web browser execution environment will continue to coexist and neither will be the main execution environment. In fact, as I have previously commented, despite standards, the web browser execution environment may become more fragmented once it gains access to large numbers of phone features.
One thing that troubles me is that we are only just starting to think about these issues. Standards will take time. Implementations take time. Phones incorporating the implementations take time. It will be many years before we see a standards based web browser execution environment and even longer before we see them in a viable number of end-user phones.