VisionMobile has an excellent presentation on Mobile Megatrends. It provides a current view of the mobile industry. After scanning through all the information I came away thinking how much the industry has changed over the last few years.
Only a few years ago, Vision Mobile was saying…
"We believe that 2006 marks a turning point in the history of Linux as a mobile phone platform, not only due to Motorola’s recent commitment, but also the wealth of products and support services from a growing commercial community. Longer term, we believe Linux based platforms will prevail over many of today’s credible contestants, as will Microsoft’s Windows Mobile."
While their latest research says…
It all depends on how you define Linux I suppose. iPhone and Android use Linux but not in the same way that was intended in VisionMobile’s earlier report.
I haven’t written this to discredit VisionMobile in any way. It’s more of an observation of how things have changed beyond how any of us could have predicted. The rise of application stores is another area that has changed considerably in a very short space of time… much faster than the mobile web and widgets that everyone had (and some people still have) their eye on. The demise of UIQ and open sourcing of Symbian OS is another area that few would have predicted a few years ago.
The bigger question is whether things will continue to evolve in ways we wouldn’t have thought. Will mobile remain inherently risky? Probably not. The latest step changes have come about due to two very large companies (Google and Apple) exerting their considerable influence. I currently can’t see other companies doing further market changing moves, especially at the moment with the global financial problems. Meanwhile, the current changes have yet to play out.
The VisionMobile presentation is also available on SlideShare.